Photo by Krisztina Papp on Unsplash
Relax. You’ve got more than enough things to worry about as the New York Home Fashions Market begins this week: How are you going to get your next delivery, the cost of that delivery and the container it came in, trying to deal with the upheaval in the New York market showroom situation, raw material shortages, Chinese cotton politics, Covid shutdowns and getting a dinner reservation when everybody’s operating at half-capacity?
The one thing you don’t need to worry about: the boom in the home textiles and overall home furnishings business suddenly ending next Tuesday.
It may eventually happen on a Tuesday, but it’s not going to be any Tuesday soon.
The industry has been riding what amounts to an unprecedented surge in business the past 18 months as Americans, cooped up at home, are spending record amounts of their disposable incomes (and that of government subsidies, too) on making those homes nicer places. Everything from sheets and towels to pots and pans to washers and dryers has been moving off the shelves – physical and virtual – like crazy. And chances are business would be even better if the sources of supply were more plentiful. But that’s a subject for another time since I don’t happen to have a spare container in my backyard.
The concern that it would all come to a sudden and crushing stop once Americans began to travel again, go on vacations, eat out at restaurants and go to concerts and movie theaters has terrified those in the home business. With more places to spend their money, home furnishings purchases could no longer be quite so much in demand for shoppers who now had alternatives.
And to be sure, the surge in home furnishings sales has slowed down this spring and into the summer as we have in fact ventured out of homes again. The Delta variant, the idiocy of the unvaccinated and general apprehension has impacted that, but people are out and about once more.
But here’s the thing: the bottom has not fallen out of the home business. Retailers who report their numbers publicly, from Home Depot and Lowe’s to RH and Williams Sonoma, are all saying the same thing. Their business continues to be good, beating not just 2020 but 2019 as well – and they are forecasting that it will not change through at least the first part of 2022.
Listen to what Gary Friedman, the impresario CEO who has turned RH into one of the most exciting retailers in the world, says: “We believe the data and current trends support the argument of a more long-term and sustainable step change in consumer spending on the home. An important point to consider when analyzing the strong demand in the housing market is the migration of consumers to larger suburban and second homes.
“This trend is resulting in substantial square footage growth that is driving increased furniture and furnishings demand. Add to that, historically low interest rates, a record stock market and the reopening of several large parts of the economy, and elevated spending on the home could have a very long tail.”
A long tail indeed.
You’ve got plenty of things to worry about, but take it easy on this. The great times aren’t going to last forever, to be sure, but the good times should be with us for longer than you think.
Warren Shoulberg has reported on the gift and home industry for most of his career. He is often quoted in national media, such as The New York Times and CNN, and contributes to PBM publications, Forbes.com and The Robin Report.
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