Shoulberg blog: 21 Skiddoo

Yeah, I know it’s supposed to be 23 Skiddoo, but let’s not go there as we start the new year off. Who knows what this year will be like – much less the one after it. I think the one thing we can agree on is that we’re all quite happy to see ’21 end.

Sure, business was mostly insanely – and unpredictably – great last year and many companies had unbelievable years, on both the supply and retail side of the business. We may never see the likes of the Great Pandemic Home Boom ever again in our business lifetimes.

But it was the cost – financially, physically and psychologically – that took their toll on all of us. At the risk of not reliving the agony, let’s just say we all remember what it was like, and move on.

Move on, that is, to 2022 – with the caveat that the changing of the calendar pages (real and/or virtual) do not usually signify changes in the Metasphere (whatever that is, thank you Zuck). Other than being hungover, we do not feel that much different on January 1 than we did on December 31.

But over the course of the next 12 months we are likely to see several phenomena that will defi ne this new year. In no particular order – other than the first and last – here are some of them:

• Business is going to stop being quite so good: Business will most likely not be bad over the course of this year. Attention to purchases for the home, driven by demographics and newfound spending priorities, will continue. But those seeking the kind of increases in their sales and revenue they saw over the past 18 months are advised to look elsewhere. Maybe bitcoin.
• The supply chain will get only a little less untangled: The worst of the logistical nightmare of getting goods from Point A to Point B are probably over, but lingering issues with container costs, backed-up ports and labor shortages will remain. Decreased demand will help, but it won’t be enough to reverse what happened in 2021.
• Price increases will come to a crashing halt: Every consumer product sector got a magical “Pass Go, Collect $200” card last year. They will be rapidly rescinded as shoppers find more of their disposable income disposed of and attention focused elsewhere. Remember what Janis Joplin said: “Get it while you can.”
• Retail market shares shifts will continue, albeit at a slower pace: The growth in e-commerce, the decline of physical stores, the rise of social selling and livestream retailing will all continue, but the radical shifts of the past 18 months are over. Thank heaven, too, because that was exhausting. But the one constant in ’22 will be that the big will continue to get bigger…and the rest will not.
• The new ways of doing business are semi-permanent: Whether it was curbside pick-up, home delivery, sourcing from new suppliers, securing traceability and sustainability in your products or having a direct connection to your customers, companies that have learned new skills will need to keep them for at least the immediate future.
• Lessons learned need to be retained: If it was a little touch of human kindness, a small dose of understanding the bigger picture or just the ability to put everyday problems into the larger context of our shared lives, one hopes we enter a new year with maybe even a little bit of a new mindset.

Remember “22” was the winning number on the roulette table in Casablanca. The fundamental things apply.