Swimming with the pishers? You probably should be

Photo by Sebastian Pena Lambarri on Unsplash

The good news from HTT’s annual Top 50 Retailing Giants report is that 46 retailers grew their home textiles business last year – 28 of them by double digits.

The hard reality, of course, is that 2022 is no 2021. The consumers most impacted by inflation, which is the bulk of them, are now spending less on discretionary goods, especially in home. The business has gotten tougher and is likely to remain so into next year. The big, delicious bubble has burst. I doubt that by the time HTT’s head of research tallies the numbers on this year’s soft home sales that we will end up with an equal preponderance of gainers.

In such a climate, it would be wise to think beyond the “We’ve got six of the top accounts, so we’re good” mindset. The double-digit gainers for 2021 include major retailers at the top of the ranking that you would probably expect, such as Target, Amazon, HomeGoods and Overstock. It also includes a raft of retailers toward the bottom of the list such as Ashley Home Store, Boscov’s, Citi Trends and Ethan Allen.

In terms of account size, the latter are what a long-ago colleague of mine would refer to as “little pishers.” He was a sales rep, so he wanted to chase the big fish, not the little pishers.

Let’s look at who some of the big fish were at that time. Sears was a Top 10 account. It no longer ranks at all among the Top 50. Linens ‘N Things was a Top 10 account as recently as 2008. By the end of that year, it was gone. Mervyn’s did nearly $400 million in soft home sales, about what Lowe’s does today. Gone. HomePlace was on a par with QVC/HSN. Gone.

I would strongly advise vendors to look to the lower ledger of the Top 50. Are you doing business any of them? Sure, not all of them are going to climb the ladder, but most of them do a steady business year after year.

Retailers, I would make the same case to you about suppliers. Just six of the Top 15 Supplier Giants in the era when my colleague was dismissing little pishers are still around today. Only three still rank among the Top 15.

Some accounts and some suppliers disappear over time. Others collapse all at once. You can hope for the slow fade, but you should be prepared for the sudden crash. Spread your risk

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