Beijing – The United States’ shift toward protectionism appears to have sparked a similar attitude among the Chinese populace.
Public opinion in China looks to be shifting to be less in favor of open trade, according to a study from the Peterson Institute of International Economics (PIIE). The Institute conducted three surveys in China since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, each coinciding with key events as the trade war escalated. With each survey, support for free trade declined.
After the U.S. increased tariffs from 10% to 25% in 2019, one survey found that support for open trade fell sharply, from an average of 6.5 out of 10 to 4.3 out of 10. A score under 5 means that free trade isn’t favorable.
The findings show a growing desire in China for reciprocity. “Direct” reciprocity refers to “declining support for cooperation with countries that do not themselves cooperate.” “Generalized” reciprocity is more encompassing, referring to an aversion to trade with all other countries. Both forms saw increases among the public.
The findings also suggest that China’s policy in its eye-for-an-eye battle with the U.S. has been influenced by public opinion, at least in part. China requested comments from the public in February 2018 on how it should respond to Trump’s tariffs. It soon levied 25% tariffs on more than 100 American products.
“If the regime were to make trade concessions to the United States in the face of strong domestic opposition, this would risk a potentially destabilizing domestic backlash,” the authors of the study wrote.
Sentiment doesn’t seem to have eased as Biden became president, as a survey conducted after he took office showed next to no change.
According to the South China Morning Post, China’s top legislature said in March that self-reliance has become its chief economic focus.
As of early July, Biden and his administration remain divided on whether tariffs on China should be kept or discontinued. An answer will have to be made soon, as they automatically are set to expire after four years.
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Robert Dalheim, senior editor of case goods and global sourcing, has been writing about the woodworking industry and business news since 2015. He is a graduate of Northern Illinois University with degrees in journalism and political science. Contact Bobby at [email protected] or by calling (336) 605-3815.
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