Imports are down, but global supply chain challenges are far from over

Washington – Fall and winter seasons are likely to see much lower import numbers at the country’s major container ports after a booming spring season, according to a Global Port Tracker report released Monday by the National Retail Federation, which reported earlier this month that they believe a recession in 2022 is unlikely, and Hackett Associates.

Despite the slow in imports, ports will likely see a net gain over 2021 numbers.

“Retail sales are still growing, but the economy is slowing down and that is reflected in cargo imports,” Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said. “Lower volumes may help ease congestion at some ports, but other ports are still seeing backups and global supply chain challenges are far from over.”

U.S. ports monitored by Global Port Tracker recorded 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in June. That was a 5.9 percent dip from May when there were 2.4 million TEUs.

The first half of 2022 finished with 13.5 TEUs, marking an increase of 5.5 percent year over year. But things aren’t as peachy for the second half.

“The heady days of growth in imports are quickly receding,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “The outlook is for a decline in volumes compared with 2021 over the next few months, and the decline is expected to deepen in 2023.”

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Based on Global Port Tracker’s projections, the second half of 2022 will be more of a roller coaster:

• July’s final numbers are expected to come in around 2.26 million TEUs, up 3.2 percent year over year.
• August is predicted to be 2.2 million, down 3 percent.
• September at 2.15 million, up 0.4 percent.
• October at 2.13 million, down 3.9 percent.
• November at 2.06 million, down 2.7  percent.
• December at 2.03 million, down 3 percent.

Those predictions would bring the second half of the year to 12.8 million TEUs – a 1.5 percent decrease from the same period last year. But 2022 as a whole will still fare better, projected to finish at 26.3 million compared to 2021’s 25.8 million.